We advise businesses in Ireland to plan for a hard, no-deal exit. We believe this continues to be a material risk. Our position is backed up by the announcement that the Irish Government's preparations for such a scenario are their highest priority at the moment.
Why do we believe this?
With only a few weeks to go, there is still no certainty as to the final Brexit outcome. While we hope that a positive outcome can be agreed in the time remaining before 31 October, it cannot be taken for granted given the political uncertainties in Westminster.
What are the options?
- No-deal exit
Likely. To avoid this option, the UK Parliament must pass the Withdrawal Agreement and agree a way forward for the future trade relationship with the EU, or revoke Article 50.
- Withdrawal Agreement passed
Unlikely. At the last vote, the UK Government was defeated by 58 votes.
- Revocation of Article 50
Possible but unlikely.
- Second referendum
What are the implications for business?
If no deal is the result, there are potentially disastrous consequences for business and the economy. A no-deal outcome should remain the core assumption for organisations, and they should plan accordingly.
We recommend using the time remaining to implement Brexit contingency planning and management to get through the critical period around 31 October.