Aviation Finance Outlook 2026

2026 Outlook

The aviation finance industry enters 2026 with renewed momentum, having moved beyond the turbulence of the Covid era. This year’s outlook explores key themes shaping the market: 

• the normalisation of aircraft deliveries
• airline financial performance 
• the strategic shifts in the leasing market. 

It also examines sustainability challenges, tax developments and the role of technology, particularly GenAI, in transforming lessor operations.

What is ahead for aviation in 2026?

This is expected to be a year of opportunity and transition. Aircraft supply is improving, but engine and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) constraints remain a critical bottleneck. 

Airline profitability is steady, supporting continued demand for new and mid-life aircraft. Leasing companies face a wave of consolidation and increased lease returns, testing assumptions about asset risk and value. 

Sustainability pressures persist, requiring proactive strategies to manage climate risk and regulatory compliance. 

Meanwhile, technology adoption offers lessors a chance to enhance efficiency and data integrity. 

With fewer seismic changes expected in the tax landscape, focus should shift to refining tax governance and ensuring resilience in M&A transactions, where tax architecture is now a key differentiator. 

Overall, the market outlook is positive but not without challenges — success will depend on agility, strategic foresight , and operational resilience.