US Tariffs – Services next in line?

President Trump has signalled a proposed tariff on the foreign movie industry in a move which is sure to raise alarm bells for the possible future impact on intangible services. Our latest weekly update on tariffs, global tax and more discusses these key issues.  

The Week in Summary 

This week, one major development emerged from the US, where President Trump proposed a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films produced outside the United States, citing national security concerns and the need to support domestic industry and “protect American culture”.  

It is not yet clear how such a tariff would be applied in practice. Unlike physical goods, films are often distributed digitally or licensed through complex rights arrangements – meaning there is no obvious point at which a customs duty could be charged. In the absence of physical media crossing the border, enforcement would likely require a new or adapted framework which remains uncertain at this time.  

For Irish production companies, particularly those involved in co-productions or licensing to US-based platforms, this could lead to commercial impacts on demand and pricing. It may also affect the competitiveness of Ireland as a filming and post-production location for projects intended for US release. 

While no concrete measures have been introduced yet, the proposal signals a potential shift in the trade environment for services.

Department of Finance Projections 

Ireland’s Department of Finance has published it economic and fiscal projections for the year ahead, required under EU rules, in a report known as the “annual progress report”. The Departments projections indicate that the imposition of a 10% US tariff on EU imports could significantly affect the Irish economy. The forecasts suggest that such tariffs would reduce Ireland’s GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in 2026, with a projected rate of 3.4% compared to the forecasted rate of 4.1% for 2025. 

The modelling also points to a slowdown in employment growth, particularly given Ireland’s high level of exposure to US multinationals operating across key sectors. 

While these projections are scenario based, the potential for further escalation – including the possibility of tariffs increasing to 20% if no resolution is reached by early July represents a risk to Ireland’s growth outlook.

Ongoing US Trade Talks  

Senior US and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland later this week to kickstart talks between the two nations looking to resolve the ongoing trade war. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer will attend the talks on behalf of the United States, their offices said. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will represent China. 

Mr Bessent told Fox News that the sides would hold meetings on Saturday and Sunday intended to lay the groundwork for future negotiations. "We will agree what we're going to talk about. My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not about the big trade deal," Mr Bessent told The Ingraham Angle show. "We've got to de-escalate before we can move forward," he added.

While a comprehensive trade deal may still be some months away, this step marks the beginning in what may be a calming down of the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. 

Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commissioner for Trade, indicated that the European Union is under no pressure to accept an unfair tariff deal with the US. Speaking at the European Parliament, he stated that “all options remain on the table here” and that “We (EU) do not feel weak. We do not feel under pressure to accept a deal which would not be fair for us”. 

While the Commission still wishes to negotiate a deal with the US, preparations continue to move ahead should a deal not be agreed within the 90 day “pause” period with the Commission due to share further proposed retaliatory measures with Member States over the coming days. These measures will look to impact about €100 billion worth of US goods and may include aircraft with reports on Wednesday suggesting the EU plans to impose tariffs on Boeing aircraft should talks fail.

How we can help

Keeping up to date with the policies and tariff measures is crucial to assessing the risk to your supply chain and the impact these tariffs may have. Understanding your product portfolio and the impact that tariffs may have on your imports is an important first step. We are here to support your business with this analysis and navigating these choppy waters.