US tariffs – EU forecast

Background

As US trade policy continues to evolve and the pace of tariff-related developments remains high – alongside wider changes in global trade and tax – remaining up to date with the latest changes in respect of this area should be a key focus for business.

The Week in Summary 

After several big weeks of announcements, it has been relatively quiet on the trade policy front with no major US tariff updates over the past week. However, the impact of the recent tariff measures moves is still being felt by companies trading with the US. 

According to the US Chamber of Commerce, the majority of American businesses impacted by new tariffs expect to increase prices in the near term, which aligns with broader concerns about cost pressure and consumer demand.

Meanwhile, Irish exports to the US reportedly spiked 400% in March, with some businesses pushing shipments forward to stay ahead of any new duties. A reminder that even the threat of tariffs can drive fast, strategic shifts in supply chains.

We're also seeing growing industry concern around longer-term investment planning – especially in pharmaceuticals and aviation – as companies wait to see how Section 232 and bilateral negotiations unfold.

EU spring forecast

A report published this week by the European Commission sets out the Spring 2025 Economic Forecast, confirming a downward revision to the EU's growth outlook. Real GDP growth is now projected at 1.1% in 2025 for the EU as a whole and 0.9% for the euro area – broadly in line with 2024 levels.

The Commission attributes the downgrade in large part to “the impact of increased tariffs and the heightened uncertainty caused by the recent abrupt changes in US trade policy and the unpredictability of the tariffs’ final configuration”. This is one of the most explicit acknowledgements to date of the economic headwinds arising from global trade disruptions.

From a customs and trade compliance perspective, the revised forecast underscores the growing exposure of EU exporters to external risks. The persistence of tariff volatility continues to place upward pressure on compliance costs, while also requiring businesses to reassess the sustainability of existing export strategies and supply chain configurations. The report provides a timely reminder of the importance of monitoring tariff developments and maintaining agile, risk-adjusted trade operations.

We’re here to help you

Keeping up to date with US trade policies, trade agreements and new and existing tariff reviews which may lead to further tariff measures is crucial to assessing the risk to your supply chain and the impact these tariffs may have. Understanding your product portfolio and the impact that tariffs may have on your imports is an important first step. We are here to support your business with this analysis and navigating these choppy waters.