Global M&A industry trends: 2026 outlook

AI investment and a resurgence of megadeals are reshaping global M&A into a K‑shaped market—with confidence and activity returning fastest at the top end, while much of the mid‑market remains constrained. Momentum heading into 2026 points to structural change rather than a simple rebound: headline deal value is expected to stay elevated even as volumes remain muted, with the largest transactions increasingly concentrated among the best‑capitalised buyers, led by the US and technology.

Three forces are defining what’s next. First, AI is accelerating strategic change across industries—pulling forward decisions on scale, capabilities, data, and talent, while reshaping how deals are sourced, diligenced, and executed. Second, dealmaking is becoming more polarised and geographically concentrated, with megadeals and domestic confidence driving value. Third, a two‑speed macro backdrop—decelerating growth, lower rates and abundant capital—supports large strategic moves even as valuation gaps, execution risk and uncertainty weigh elsewhere.

AI’s near‑term impact is also a capital allocation story. A multitrillion‑dollar AI capital expenditure supercycle—spanning data centres, chips, networks, and energy—may divert capital from acquisitions in the short-term. Over the medium-term, however, AI could trigger an innovation supercycle that reignites dealmaking as companies accelerate transformation, reposition portfolios, and acquire critical capabilities. With AI increasingly central to valuation, due diligence, and investment decisions, dealmakers who act decisively—and build a clear AI‑thematic lens—will be best positioned to win in a polarised market.

Key actions for dealmakers in a polarised AI‑driven market

1. Bubble or no bubble, plan for volatility.  

Treat markets as if they’re in a bubble and prepare for multiple scenarios with strong liquidity, flexible financing, and contingency plans.

2. Capital allocation discipline becomes mission critical.

Prioritise investments that align with strategic goals by evaluating returns, modelling outcomes, and making deliberate allocation choices.

3. AI is transforming everything, leaving dealmakers no choice but to act.

AI is reshaping industries, so dealmakers must clarify their strategic vision and assess how acquisitions can build long‑term advantage.

4. Make AI due diligence a core part of every deal.

Evaluate a target’s AI roadmap, capability needs, execution readiness, and the three‑ to five‑year AI impact to inform valuation and underwriting.

5. Adopt a clear AI-thematic investment lens.

Map where AI drives disruption and opportunity to build stronger investment theses and protect value as business models evolve.

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If you’d like to understand how these trends impact your organisation, we're here to help you spot opportunities, manage risks, and craft the right deal strategy. Whether you're looking at potential acquisitions, assessing your portfolio, or exploring how AI might transform your markets, we offer combined commercial, financial, and technical insights to support your decisions. Let's discuss how these insights align with your priorities and how we can help you move forward with clarity and speed.